Huawei-SMIC in the limelight, but more friction ahead
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Huawei-SMIC in the limelight, but more friction ahead

Despite restrictions around access to advanced technology, Huawei’s new smartphone – powered by SMIC chips – sees it back at the fore of 5G enabled devices. We explore the implications of China’s efforts to secure semiconductor independence.

  • In early September, the Huawei Mate 60 Pro emerged as the most controversial smartphone worldwide.
  • The timing, coming ahead of the launch of Apple iPhone 15, was a moment of techno-nationalist pride in China. Despite punitive US sanctions to curtail Huawei’s access to advanced technology since 2019, Huawei seems to have engineered its way back to the forefront of 5G smartphones.
  • Indeed, the geopolitics of semiconductor remain alive, with knock-on impact on other Chinese technology and internet platform companies.

A surprise to the financial market, less so for industry players

US sanctions to restrict Huawei’s access to advanced technology have been in place since 2019. The latest Mate 60 Pro smartphone highlights Huawei’s comeback in producing 5G-capable devices. The domestic foundry company, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) provides the critical helping hand.  As revealed by TechInsights, the smartphone Huawei Mate 60 Pro features the Kirin 9000s processor that uses the SMIC’s 7nm (N+2) foundry process. While Huawei’s smartphone advancement surprised the financial market, this technological milestone was anticipated by industry players in the semiconductor space. In 2022, TechInsights reported that SMIC had used the 7nm (N+1) to produce the MINERVA7 Bitcoin Miner ASIC, heralding the pathway for the SMIC-Huawei partnership to produce advanced smartphones. While SMIC is restricted from obtaining advanced lithography machines (especially EUV) from ASML, it has been using the DUVs (deep-ultraviolet lithography) with multi-patterning to produce the sub-10nm chipsets.

The risk of more export controls into China could impact other Chinese corporates, beyond SMIC and Huawei

As background, the level of multi-lateral cooperation between US, Netherlands and Japan has already increased in 2023. Netherlands has imposed additional new export controls on its advanced immersion DUV (NXT: 2000i and subsequent immersion systems), effective 1 September 2023. Meanwhile, Japan implemented the export controls on 23 types of equipment in June 2023, which comprise advanced manufacturing equipment, photomask coating, etching, deposition etc. As it stands, China does not yet have a homegrown company to rival ASML at the leading edge of lithography. In terms of domestic capability, according to Global Times (Aug 2023), Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE) will launch its 28-nm lithography machine by end-2023. The scope for more export restrictions on equipment and input materials to China could likely increase. Certain US legislators are calling for a complete ban on technological exports to both Huawei and SMIC. A broadening of export restrictions, if any, could disrupt a swathe of companies which has been investing in their chip design capabilities.

Embracing the trend towards more homegrown semiconductor capability but tighter export controls by the US could add more speed bumps

Major Chinese companies (Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu) have been investing in self-designed chips to support their cloud computing and artificial intelligence strategy. Much of the fabrication is outsourced to non-domestic foundries such as TSMC and Samsung. Baidu, for example, holds a c.71% stake in Kunlun Chip Technology Company, which designs the Kunlun chips for search engine, cloud and deep learning computing. For now, these Chinese companies continue to depend on Nvidia’s GPUs for much of their AI training needs. In fact, Baidu, Bytedance, Tencent and Alibaba were reportedly rushing to purchase the Nvidia 800 chips for around USD5bn, on concerns that the US may impose more export controls (FT, Aug 2023). Baidu itself has previously mentioned that its own Kunlun chips are more suitable for AI inference, while it uses the Nvidia GPUs for AI training due to higher computational demands. Indeed, in mid-October, the US Department of Commerce announced additional export controls with a broader scope of AI semiconductor chips that falls under the restriction list. The latest list includes the Nvidia A800 and H800 chips. Furthermore, the licensing requirements are expanded to a number of countries and foreign subsidiaries, in order to stem the circumvention of export rules by Chinese buyers.

The scope and timing of further US response to the Huawei-SMIC development will be keenly watched over the near-term given some diplomatic sensitivity ahead of the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in November 2023. A potential face-to-face meeting between US President Biden and China President Xi Jinping could take place during the summit. That said, diplomatic sensitivity alone does not imply a pause in retaliatory actions. For context, in October 2022, the US implemented export control controls on advanced computing and semiconductor manufacturing items, before the President Biden-Xi meeting during the G20 summit (November 2022, Bali).

As our equity colleague (Dave Egan) highlights, the potential addressable market for AI should be larger than the traditional tech industry and we are just scratching the surface. The SMIC-Huawei development underscores that China is serious about building up its semiconductor independence, guided by the aspiration to be a global leader in AI. An escalation of export controls and restrictions will leave more companies, beyond SMIC and Huawei, bruised. Most might find a way to innovate and survive. But the road ahead is bumpy.

The geopolitics of semiconductor

Geopolitics Semiconductor map
18 October 2023
Justin Ong
Justin Ong
Senior Research Analyst, Asian Corporate Debt
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Huawei-SMIC in the limelight, but more friction ahead

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For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). For marketing purposes.

 

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In the Middle East: This document is distributed by Columbia Threadneedle Investments (ME) Limited, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). For Distributors: This document is intended to provide distributors with information about Group products and services and is not for further distribution. For Institutional Clients: The information in this document is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for persons with appropriate investment knowledge and who meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparties and no other Person should act upon it.

 

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Important Information

For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). For marketing purposes.

 

This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. This should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services. Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. Your capital is at risk. Market risk may affect a single issuer, sector of the economy, industry or the market as a whole. The value of investments is not guaranteed, and therefore an investor may not get back the amount invested. International investing involves certain risks and volatility due to potential political, economic or currency fluctuations and different financial and accounting standards. The securities included herein are for illustrative purposes only, subject to change and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Securities discussed may or may not prove profitable. The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change and may differ from views expressed by other Columbia Threadneedle Investments (Columbia Threadneedle) associates or affiliates. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Columbia Threadneedle and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, may not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not take into consideration individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Asset classes described may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and no forecast should be considered a guarantee either. Information and opinions provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This document and its contents have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority.

 

In Australia: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited [“TIS”], ARBN 600 027 414. TIS is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and relies on Class Order 03/1102 in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients in Australia. This document should only be distributed in Australia to “wholesale clients” as defined in Section 761G of the Corporations Act. TIS is regulated in Singapore (Registration number: 201101559W) by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), which differ from Australian laws.

 

In Singapore: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited, 3 Killiney Road, #07-07, Winsland House 1, Singapore 239519, which is regulated in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289). Registration number: 201101559W. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

 

In Hong Kong: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services Hong Kong Limited 天利投資管理香港有限公司. Unit 3004, Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Hong Kong, which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) to conduct Type 1 regulated activities (CE:AQA779). Registered in Hong Kong under the Companies Ordinance (Chapter 622), No. 1173058.

 

In Japan: Issued by Columbia Threadneedle Investments Japan Co., Ltd. Financial Instruments Business Operator, The Director-General of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO) No.3281, and a member of Japan Investment Advisers Association and Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association.

 

In the UK: Issued by Threadneedle Asset Management Limited, No. 573204 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited, No. 517895, both registered in England and Wales and authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

 

In the EEA: Issued by Threadneedle Management Luxembourg S.A., registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), No. B 110242 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Netherlands B.V., regulated by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM), registered No. 08068841.

 

In Switzerland: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services AG, an unregulated Swiss firm or Columbia Threadneedle Management (Swiss) GmbH, acting as representative office of Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited, authorised and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA).

 

In the Middle East: This document is distributed by Columbia Threadneedle Investments (ME) Limited, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). For Distributors: This document is intended to provide distributors with information about Group products and services and is not for further distribution. For Institutional Clients: The information in this document is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for persons with appropriate investment knowledge and who meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparties and no other Person should act upon it.

 

Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies.

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